Yep. Four in a row now. What are the odds?
Dang, I had to ask that. Now I’m gonna have to calculate them.
Probability of a winner is 1 in 8. So the chances of me getting a winner with my first bottle was, well, 1 in 8, or 0.125.
Probability of a winner each time I get 2 bottles is [1 in 8] * 2, which is 1 in 4, or 0.25.
I’ve now gotten the initial winner plus three more winners in sequence. The odds of that, according to these back-of-the-envelope calculations, are 0.125 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.001953125, or to put it another way, 1 in 512.