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It happened again.

Yep. Four in a row now. What are the odds?

Dang, I had to ask that. Now I’m gonna have to calculate them.

Probability of a winner is 1 in 8. So the chances of me getting a winner with my first bottle was, well, 1 in 8, or 0.125.

Probability of a winner each time I get 2 bottles is [1 in 8] * 2, which is 1 in 4, or 0.25.

I’ve now gotten the initial winner plus three more winners in sequence. The odds of that, according to these back-of-the-envelope calculations, are 0.125 * 0.25 * 0.25 * 0.25 = 0.001953125, or to put it another way, 1 in 512.


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