A warning to my casual readers: this post is going to get more than a wee bit nerdy, and probably a bit political, too.

OK, with that out of the way, let me note that one of the things that’s been bugging me ever since John McCain’s announcement of Sarah Palin as his VP choice last week is that while there’s been a veritable chorus describing her as “inexperienced” and “unqualified”, no one has really bothered to set down what they thought a VP’s experience should be. I had this discussion with a guy who is a big Obama supporter over on a forum I frequent, and even he was unwilling to suggest a criteria other than that it should be “the same as if they were running for president”.

I decided it was time to give myself a history lesson. How much experience, exactly, did our various candidates for president and vice president have? Geof suggested plotting that data against their presidential ratings to see how it panned out. So I did that, too. To bound the problem a little bit, I decided to limit my study to the more modern presidential era (starting with 1960). Then I headed off to Wikipedia to do some data collection.

The Setup

A person’s experience is, in some ways, difficult to quantify, but I settled on the following categories of experience:

• Years of college education (I also tracked whether it was Ivy League and whether they got a law degree)
• Years of military service
• Years in a state legislature
• Years as a state governor
• Years in other federal government service (i.e. cabinet or civil service positions)
• Years in Congress
• Years as Vice President
• Years as President

The tricky part, then, is how you choose to sum these up; let’s just agree that, for instance, years served as Vice President or as a governor are more valuable, year-for-year, than those served in the military or in a state legislature. I settled on some multipliers to try to help even things out. Feel free to argue over these if you want to.

• Years of college education (I also tracked whether it was Ivy League and whether they got a law degree) – 0.25
• Years of military service – 0.25
• Years in a state legislature – 0.25
• Years as a state governor – 1.0
• Years in other federal government service (i.e. cabinet or civil service positions) – 0.5
• Years in Congress – 0.75
• Years as Vice President – 1.0
• Years as President – 2.0

So, for example, George H. W. Bush, in 1984, had 4 years of college, 4 years in the military, 5 years in government service, 4 years in congress, and 4 years as VP. That gives him a score of ((4*0.25)+(4*0.25)+(5*0.5)+(4*0.75)+(4*1.0)) = 11.50.

With those multipliers in place it was easy enough to get Excel to do some sums and give me some totals. (You can download my spreadsheet here if you want to.)

What I found was fairly interesting.

The Data

The average experience score for a presidential candidate: 16.8.
The average experience score for a VP candidate: 12.9.

Highest score for a presidential candidate: 28.75, shared by Bob Dole in 1996 and Gerald Ford in 1976.
Highest score for a VP candidate: also 28.75, Joe Biden this year.

Lowest score for a presidential candidate: 5.25, Barack Obama, this year. (second lowest: George W. Bush’s 7.50 in 2000.)
Lowest score for a VP candidate: 3.00, Sarah Palin, this year. (second lowest: Spiro Agnew’s 3.75 in 1968.)

Highest POTUS/VP combined score: Dole/Kemp in 1996 (45.75)
Lowest POTUS/VP combined score: Reagan/Bush in 1980 (17.25)

So that’s a lot of data, how about some analysis?

Analysis

I did a plot of the experience ratings against some presidential performance ratings (as found here, which claim to be amalgamated from several different ratings on Wikipedia), but found that to be a mixed bag. There were experienced presidents who ranked poorly (Nixon) and well (LBJ) and inexperienced presidents similarly (Reagan ranked high, Jimmy Carter much lower). Result: Inconclusive.

Next, I noticed an interesting trend. If you throw out the few elections where strong incumbents were running for second terms (LBJ in 1964 after finishing JFK’s term, Nixon in 1972, Reagan in 1984), in each of the other cases, the POTUS/VP pair with the lower experience score won the election. Result: If that trend holds through this election, McCain/Palin will win.

If you want to do a little more hardcore statistical analysis,

POTUS Standard Deviation: 6.59
VP Standard Deviation: 5.82

Just for sake of argument, this means that Obama’s POTUS score (5.25) is 1.75 standard deviations below the mean, and that Palin’s VP score (3.00) is 1.70 standard deviations below the mean… which means that, per these ratings, Obama is slightly more relatively inexperienced as a presidential candidate than Palin is as a VP candidate. (Only slightly, though.)

Conclusions

Well, this is great data for us dataheads who like to ponder such things. What it really shows, I think, is that there are far more factors that play into the election (and the subsequent job performance) than just experience.

I’ll also conclude that I still haven’t answered the question regarding “how much experience is enough?”. Yes, Palin is the least-experienced VP candidate in the past 50 years. But Obama is also the least-experienced POTUS candidate. Hey, the nature of number is that somebody will have to be least-experienced. So until somebody can give me some quantifiable other measures, I think it’s still gonna come down to gut feel and politics… like usual.

No, Dad, regardless of the title, I’m not talking about Wagner or Puccini or that kind of opera… sorry. But with Firefox 3 coming out yesterday, I figured I’d be the contrarian and give that other browser a try; Opera was promising more features with version 9.5, and I hadn’t played with Opera in quite a while. So yesterday was Opera trial day. Mind you, I’m a quite-happy Firefox user, but I figured I should give it a try.

My first impression when starting Opera: It’s pretty. I like the UI, though admittedly I’m a sucker for new, shiny toys. But it looks good. And the rendering looks good, and it seems fast. So far, so good. Sadly, on my list of comments/thoughts about Opera, that’s pretty much the end of the good things.

Then there’s my list of annoyances. First stop: Gmail. I keep Gmail open all the time, and use the Google Talk function embedded in Gmail as my primary chat engine. It seems to be the only thing that’ll function here at work. Well, the GTalk panel doesn’t even load in Gmail. Quick Google search, and ah, I can use the &nobrowsercheck option in the URL. Then it shows up. Cool!

But it ends up there’s a reason Gmail doesn’t load chat in Opera; it doesn’t work. You can’t initiate a chat with anybody from the chat panel, it won’t pop up the little window. If someone else starts the chat, then you can pop it up, but you can’t pop it out; it’s stuck within the main Opera window. No good to me.

Another Google search provides my next try for GTalk: load it up in the “Panel” aka sidebar. It loads up better there, but again you can’t pop out chat sessions; they’re all stuck within the panel. Given that I like to have more than one session going at once at times, this just won’t work for me. Bummer.

Oh, and as long as I’m talking about searches – one weird thing: the hotkey to get up to the search box is different between Opera and Firefox/IE. FF/IE both use CTRL-K to put your cursor in the search box. Opera uses CRTL-E. Would it have been that hard to stay consistent?

Firefox users who check out Opera quickly notice that there are no extensions for Opera like there are for Firefox. Opera proponents quickly point out that some of the most popular “extended” functionality in Firefox is built-in to Opera natively; they cite Mouse Gestures and Content Blocking as examples. Now, Mouse Gestures I have to give them. I love using Mouse Gestures and they work well in Opera. Content Blocking… not so much.

I’m hooked on Adblock for Firefox. It just works. The net it casts for ads catches most all the ads without filtering out the pictures I want to see. Opera has a built-in “content blocker”, but it’s not very user-friendly. Right-click on a blank area of the screen, and choose Block Content. Then it highlights all the blockable items on the screen. Then you have to click on the ones you want to block. By default, it blocks everything from a pretty high level in the domain the ad is hosted. This is fine if the ad you’re blocking is from an adserver, but for some of the sites I visit, the ads are hosted right on the domain… which means Opera ends up blocking ALL the images from that domain, including the ones I want. Yes, you can fine-tune it, but it requires opening up another dialog, and it’s a pain. I’ll take the Adblock extension for Firefox any day.

Other little annoyances: I’ve grown to love the Remember The Milk extension for Firefox that embeds my to-do list into my Gmail screen. Not available in Opera. The drag-and-drop arrangement for my fantasy baseball team in Yahoo Fantasy Sports? Not available in Opera. It’s little things like that here and there that make my choice easy.

This morning with some relief I clicked on my Firefox shortcut and was happy to see FF version 3 loading up. This is a browser worth keeping.

Some of my regular readers will remember that from time to time I’ll have link posts that will show up here; interesting things I’ve noted on the web and wanted to share. I’ve been notably inconsistent with that type of post, but still link some stuff from time to time. I was surprised, then, when after posting a couple of links yesterday to my del.icio.us account, they didn’t show up here overnight. Come to find out that the del.icio.us service that cross-posts apparently hasn’t run since March sometime. Phooey.

So I’ve been using Google Reader as my usual feed reader and it has a nifty little interface to share items which will then show up for any other Google Reader user who’s one of my contacts, or anybody who wants to subscribe to the shared items feed. What GR doesn’t provide is a similar sort of remote-posting functionality. What GR does provide is a little bit of javascript that will pull in the most recent shared items and list them. So, for the moment I’ve put that on my sidebar. The obvious downside is that anyone who just reads my items from a feed reader won’t be able to see them. (On the other hand, those folks could easily enough subscribe to my Google Reader Shared Items feed.)

If and when I find a better way to do this link sharing, I’ll do so. For now, hey, I suppose anything is better than nothing.

So back in my Caedmon’s concert post, Daniel commented that he found the length of that road trip to see a concert “insane”. Being the nerd that I am, I decided an “equation of insanity” would be appropriate. (Geof’s equation of motivation was an additional piece of inspiration.)

So, without further ado, the equation:

I = (d+t)/qL

Where

I = relative insanity of the trip
d = distance traveled to the concert
t = time that trip took
q = quality of the artist you are going to see
L = length of the concert.

Of course the tricky thing here is that the q value will vary between persons, so just because you think my trip is insane doesn’t mean that I will agree with you. Also, by including not only the distance of the trip but also its’ duration, trips like Geof’s planned flight to Philly aren’t as insane as if he were to, say, drive to Philly.

There’s also the issue of theoretical insanity versus actual insanity. For instance, my trip to see Andy O’s The Morning release show theoretically should be much more insane because of the distance to Nashville, but in actuality the concert was so awesome that the real insanity level was much lower.

Note to Becky, my Mom, etc: Yes, this really just means that I am a huge nerd. Not exactly a revelation.

I’ve carried a PDA pretty much everywhere with me for the past several years; I think I’ve been through three different Palm models. My current one is a Palm Tungsten E2. I don’t use too many features on it, really; my primary uses are the calendar and a few games. The calendar is the biggie for me – I need something to keep all my work meetings and outside meetings lined up. The past few weeks my PDA has had trouble holding a charge. It doesn’t matter whether I charge it via USB or from the wall charger; within 10 minutes or so it complains about the battery being low and starts disabling functions. I’m assuming it’s nearing the end of its life – I’ve had it just over two years now.

Second upcoming event: our cell phone contract is just about up. I haven’t completely decided yet, but I’m thinking we’ll abandon US Cellular in favor of Verizon, for a number of reasons. With the new contract comes the opportunity to purchase a new phone at a reduced price. So I have a convergence here which might allow me to start consolidating electronic gadgetry. So I want to explore my options.

Desired operations:

• Basic cell phone operation
• A usable calendar that allows for easy entry and reference. My employer uses an antiquated Lotus Notes system for email and calendar, so I’m not counting on the ability to sync things up.

Heck, I think that’s basically it. So what are my options?

Geof was the first to respond to my tweet on this topic. His words: “this is God’s way of getting you to buy an iPhone.” Geof was an iPhone early-adopter and has had nothing but good to say about it. And I will admit that I’ve drooled over the iPhone a time or two. Who can’t love its wonderful touch-screen interface and Apple styling?

I have a few issues with the iPhone option, though. I’m not crazy about the price, but hey, if I’m replacing a PDA, the iPhone isn’t really any more expensive. Does the iPhone even have a calendar feature? Surely it must. But I don’t really want to use it to replace my iPod – I want my iPod to be able to hold my entire music collection, and they don’t make a 40 GB iPhone yet.

The other issue, which will be an issue for all web-enabled phones, is that I don’t really need full connectivity all the time. Goodness knows I check my email often enough as it is, I certainly don’t need another way that I can be distracted. And the data plans that come hand-in-hand with these smartphones end up adding $30 – $40 per month to your cell plan. For the type of plan we’d have, that’s almost a 50% increase, which is too much.

There are other cell/PDA combos out there; you can get a Palm Treo, any one of several models of Blackberry, and some “smartphones” that the cell providers offer. But again, I don’t want/need the data plan. I just want something that’ll give me phone capability and help keep me organized.

So what’s a guy to do?

I haven’t enjoyed a single episode of TV quite so much in a while. I’m a couple weeks behind on Dr. Who, but finally watched the episode called “Blink” tonight. A very, very good episode. [Spoilers ahead, so if you're going to watch it and want to be surprised, don't read on.]

First of all, the idea of weeping stone angels as quantum-locked beings who are only alive when no one is looking at them? Awesome. Now, the whole time-travel plot device of having someone send messages to themself in the past is far from new – Phillip K. Dick wrote a short story with that premise, which got adapted into a so-so movie called Paycheck a few years back. But it was really well done here. And the whole final scene where the human has one-up on the Doctor, because she knows what’s gonna happen, and he doesn’t yet? Brilliant. And so well done.

Dr. Who can be really cheesy at times, but this season has done well. And Blink is definitely the best episode to date.

I just completed upgrading Way Over Yonder in the Minor Key to Wordpress 2.3. In the mix, I also ended up with a newer (and wider!) version of my theme. Let me know if you see anything out of place! I’m still trying to make sure it’s all functional.